Food and... well, Hunger.
I've been thinking a lot about something that someone (Jay) said while commenting on my blog earlier last week. I had been talking about my several new ventures growing food and other trees on our property up here in Washington. Jay mentioned how important it would be to consider food for the coming future, due to food shortages that are coming up. I hadn't really thought about this before, much. I mean, I know I wanted to grow some food for added security for myself and my family - but I hadn't really considered anything imminent, like food shortages, providing impetus and value to this practice.
But the more I thought about it, the more worried I became. We all know how much oil this country uses to produce food - such has been mentioned freequently when considering the role of biofuels in the future and all of the hydrocarbons that go into growing these machine-intensive crops commercially. Well, when the cost of oil goes up; what do you think is more likely to happen: the cost of crops could go up, or lots of farmers could just go bankrupt. I don't know which way it could go, but it could go either way. And since the costs are multiplied the higher up you go in a food hierarchy (more expensive to eat tofu than soybeans), I could really see FOOD costs being seriously high this year. And I thought it was just the mexicans that had to worry about food shortages. I guess having food be more expensive than normal doesn't neccessarily equate to having food become SCARCE, and it could in theory be great for farmers (but they have higher costs too).
If gas was ever cut off entirely - could you see scarcity in food actually being the result in a real-world situation? don't you think that domestic resources such as coal would just be adapted to soothe matters over?
Is anyone else worried about food scarcity? Do you keep gardens? ARe you going to plant more this year than in the past?
Dominic
scarcity
Submitted by Ludi on Thu, 2008-03-06 22:12.
Yes, I worry about food scarcity a great deal. I plant gardens but I'm not an especially successful gardener, and I garden in a difficult climate. I seriously doubt my ability to feed my family if food supplies are cut off, or if we simply can't afford food.
Shortage potential longer term problem
Submitted by LeaverExplorer on Fri, 2008-03-07 12:10.
I have recently switched to trying to buy all food from local organic producers. I think the low cost of conventional agriculture is a byproduct of the inexpensive oil used for the pesticides, fertilizers and transportation. If the Hubbert Curve is accurate, and I think it is, we are near or at peak oil. Supply stays pretty constant for a good ten years or so while demand continues to increase. That will cause prices to increase, but I don't forsee it causing actual shortages in available food.
Fortunately we have intensive organic growing processes at our disposal. These are sustainable growing methods that aren't petroleum based. If we can get more local producers online, rather than converting their crop lands to housing developments, then we will continue to not have a food shortage problem. We will still probably have to deal with prices that are significantly higher than what we are used to now however.
I look forward to being able to grow my own food, with organic methods and in my own yard. I think it will help my bottom line, my belly and my psyche. However I don't think it will be an imperative to survive food shortages for many many decades, if at all, since the transition time will be measured in decades not years.
optimistic
Submitted by Ludi on Fri, 2008-03-07 22:58.
"Supply stays pretty constant for a good ten years or so while demand continues to increase."
That's pretty darn optimistic. After peak decline could be 5% or more per year.
Plateau
Submitted by LeaverExplorer on Mon, 2008-03-10 02:37.
We are in the middle of plateauing and will do so for some time. The peak is more of a leveling off and then decline. Once we get into the decline phase we are in for a real rude awakening if we haven't weened ourself off to some degree. However the years of us having to deal with price pressures in the plateau will hopefully bring some voices to reason to the surface.
Source...
Submitted by nene on Mon, 2008-03-10 15:16.
Hey --
On what basis do you say this? Aside from all other factors, the use of pumped in seawater to maximize recovery from declining wells and the exagerrated statistics from producers all over the world would seem to suggest that we are very close to a point where production will begin to drop precipitously... and once it begins to drop, we can expect a snowball effect as the resources to etract more oil become unavailable....
At least this is how I understand the current indicators.............
Janene
Untapped sources
Submitted by LeaverExplorer on Thu, 2008-03-13 12:36.
There are still untapped reserves that didn't make sense to pump in earnest until the price of oil rose to the current levels, or because of political reasons. The oil exports from Iran, Iraq, Russia, extremely deep sea sources, and up and coming oil countries in Africa will be tapped in earnest. That will make the end of the plateau stretch out, but it will end relatively shortly to be sure. It also will have devastating environmental and geopolitical consequences, for example with China and the U.S. working with pygme state dictators that have new found powers with their new found oil reserves. Those will be tapped regardless of any of these consequecnes and help maintain the supply for several more years, but simply delaying the inevitable.
Because of our increase in demand throughout that period of time it will still have drastic consequences on the price of oil and therefore goods, even with these extraordinary measures. I just hope we wake up before we cause true environmental catastrophe by strip mining, I mean processing, the tar sands for their oil. If you ask me what policy I would take, I would pursue an energy policy that assumed we already hit peak oil. If you ask me what I think we wil do, I think we will do everything we can to maintain the delusion that we have limitless supplies of oil to keep our modern economy on its current energy base.
Peaking Producers
Submitted by LeaverExplorer on Thu, 2008-03-13 12:39.
By the way, you bring up a good point on the state of the modern large producers, specifically Saudi Arabia. I notice that while they previously would increase output to keep the price of oil, ideally, in the $40-$60 a barrel in recent years, they have let it go above $100 and are still talking about voluntarily cutting production. I don't think they really will be doing this voluntarily. I think they can't increase their current output rates and are trying to hide that behind OPEC rhetoric as to not cause a financial panic.
Not just shortages...
Hey Dom --
Yes, absolutely.... with a sudden drastic reduction in oil (which is what we are headed for as supplies have been grossly overestimated by almost all parties -- or at leas that is how it appears when you look at projections in depth) there will be a sudden drastic reduction in food... not merely in increase in cost. Worst case scenario there could be near-complete crop failure with corresponding failures in transportation system... leading to sudden and horrific famine in urban centers, and significantly horrific famine everywhere else.
Me? This summer I move into my new chosen ecology... and I am going to be spending a lot of time learning that ecology both for what already grows there and when and figuring out what I may be able to plant guerilla style to supplement.... but I won't have a permenant home for some time so gardening in the tradional sense will not be useful to me.....
Janene