Hi Crocodilemoth,
I don't think you should be butchered. I'm a bit of a sceptic myself when it comes to this stuff.
Here are my thoughts:

Change happens. In some sense, life, the universe, and everything is one long change.

As I understand things, there have been times when the Earth has been much much cooler and times when the earth has been much much warmer. That we're here today means we survived (perhaps not as "humans" but certainly in an ancestral form). But, because we survived climate change previously is no guarantee that we will again. I don't think it's arrogant to think that humans can (or have had) a lasting effect on the world. I think it's possible.

What's makes life resilient is diversity. This makes sense to me intuitively.

"Diversity is a survival factor for the community itself. A community of a hundred million species can survive almost anything short of total global catastrophe. Within that hundred million will be thousands that could survive a global temperature drop of twenty degrees- which would be a lot more devastating than it sounds. Within that hundred million will be thousands that could survive a global temperature rise of twenty degrees. But a community of a hundred species, or a thousand species has almost no survival value at all." Ishmael pg.130

Diversity is precisely what's under attack by our culture. Sort of alarming...

The politics of Global Warming® (or is it The Climate Crisis!® OH NO RUN!!) is definitely being shaped by opportunists of all stripes. Certainly we're primed for scarcity and disaster (and war). But I'm not convinced those threats aren't real. Just because some jerk finds a way to profit off of car crashes doesn't mean that they don't happen, or that he's staging them, or that people don't get hurt.

Uhm...so... not sure where that leaves me. This feels like only half a post. I'm getting something, but I'm not sure what. Hmmm...

I say press on! NOT butcher indeed!

cheers

Hey!

First what I agree with.... YES the US Government (and most power bases) use fear ongering to get thier way.  No doubt.

Yes, global climate has been very different at different times in the past.  Up down, all over the place.

Yes, our planet does go through warm and cold cycles, and yes we are currently in the midst of an interglacial period, which simply means that sooner or later the ice will return.

For the rest of it... just some food for thought......

First, just to clarify... global warming (or whatever the current PC term is) can not be causing rising oil prices.... climate change does appear to be caused by burning fossil fuels, but there is no mechanism or an inverse relationship.  Rather, oil price increases are being driven by political turmoil and (to a greater or lesser degree, we don't know yet) Peak Oil.  If you are not familiar with Peak Oil you may want to check it out.

Second... global warming refers to the observable fact that average global temps have increased by one (or is it now two or three?) degree(s).  That does not sound like much, but as a global mean it is actually rather significant.  Moreso because the climate system is fairly delicate.  During the Little Ice Age (what was it?  13-15th Centuries or thereabouts?) our temp balance got knocked out of wack and the result was erratic weather... ie snow in July, warm weather in January... to the point that crops failed year after year and so on.  Likewise, with our current issue, we may see deserts turn to lakes, farmland turn to desert and everything in between.  But before those changes stabilize, anything goes...........

For more on that... Jason over at Anthropik has written some in depth articales.

Finally... if you want to get into some of this more in depth... I'd highly recommend James Lovelock's "The Gaea Hypothesis".  He explains the way our planet work systemically which makes a whole lot of sense to me and removes the need to worry about the details of all these competing theories, because it allows one to understand the system itself......

Janene 

Janine is perfectly right about oil prices. Global Warming panic hasn't even caused the turmoil. Actually, I've heard more talk about people panicking over Global Warming than I've seen actual panic. People don't panic about this stuff, they either refuse to believe it and go on with their lives or decide nothing they do matters and go on with their lives. However, Janine, I do think you might be underestimating the possible impact of peak oil. I was just noting earlier this week how almost perfectly inline with the predictions this price increase is. Although that could be mostly coincidence.

Global Warming is not a theory. Its data.

In the early to mid part of the last century (although several scientists were considering the possibility even in the 1800s believe it or not) it was noticed the amount of carbon dioxide, methane, etc in the air was substantially increased due to human action. Three hypotheses were put forward as to what would happen because of it. The first hypothesis was nothing would happen. The second was that the extra stuff in the air would cause more solar energy to reflect out into space, cooling the planet. The third was that the extra carbon would block more heat in, increasing global temperatures. We've been collecting data for more then fifty years from stations all around the globe (including the middle of the Pacific Ocean, where human influences should be minimal). There has been a statistically significant rise in global temperatures.

This is not a "leveling off," it is an increase. However, some areas of the Earth will get colder. But most are heating up. Rain patterns will continue to change. However it is impossible to claim any particular occurence is caused by global warming, without being full of more shit than a whale with no ass. Global warming changes patterns, not events.

You are quite correct in that climates cycle. For instance, the American Southwest is about the finish an atypically wet cycle. The result will be intense drought because the people in the southwest are grossly overusing their water resources. It will last for approximately 30 years at an extreme before improving somewhat. Note: I have absolutely zero sympathy so long as there is a single golf course, open air pool, or blade of grass. But this isn't global warming. If it doesn't happen, or if it doesn't get wetter again, that may be a result of global climate change.

However, since 2005 tropical cyclones have increased in frequency and intensity the world over, far beyond what would be expected. The Atlantic basin is unusually quiet as a result of another cycle.

The Gulf Stream is responsible for moving warm, wet air from the Gulf to Europe. This is why Europe is oddly warm for a latitude otherwise occupied by such vacation gems as Siberia. In the north Atlantic ice forms and melts every year, driving the Gulf Stream. When its too hot it doesn't form, and the Gulf Stream doesn't move the warm, wet air. This causes the Gulf to be far hotter than typical (encouraging storm formation and development), and Europe and the North Atlantic to be far cooler. This cooler air allows the ice to form and melt, turning the Gulf Stream back on. In fact, this past winter the Arctic sea ice almost completely reformed. We'll have to see how it ends up this summer.

These kinds of cycles help balance changes in global climate, but we are pumping carbon into the air that hasn't been an active part of the environment since the late Carboniferous. At the time the world was mostly a giant equatorial rainforest.

We have been modeling the climate to try and figure out what might be the result. This is a stupid waste of resources, but the government is willing to pay for them so we make them. Honestly, we don't trust the weatherman a week out but we want climate models for fifty years in the future or more? Models work by starting with an initial case (which is always flawed) and then jumps forward based on the climatologist's conception of climate (which is also flawed). And then it continues forward with exponentially increasing error. What a waste of money, that could be going towards useful projects...like my research. Anyway, this doesn't mean we're home free. Thus far almost every model we've caught up with has been proven wrong...the models were overly optimistic. By a lot.

The questions being debated by scientists are is it anthropogenic (human-caused) or not? This question is closing rapidly, the number of independent scientists dissenting can be counted without taking off your shoes. Hell, we can almost count them in mittens. (However, real scientists can never close that question completely.) Another question is what will it mean? This is still being hotly debated, if you will excuse the pun. 

Earth is very unlikely to become either like Venus or like Mars. Earth will recover, because the Earth has all the time in the world. We're the ones who need rescuing.

Don't ride a bicycle to save the planet. The planet is doing just fine. Ride a bicycle to save your own ass.

Benjamin Shender

Ohio University

Department of Geography